Put Away the Party Hats, Obama Can Still Lose

Much of the media seems to have decided that this race is close to over, not in terms of time but in terms of the polls. I say Obama can still lose for a few reasons:

1. A big foreign policy event could occur (Israel attacks Iran, for example), or another attack on our own soil. I am sure that foreign terrorists would love nothing more than for us to elect another raving lunatic who will continue to drive our country into the ground so they don't have to.

2. Obama may need to overcome a Bradley Effect to win, which means he would need to have a certain number of percentage points ABOVE McCain just to break even. I find it interesting that it seems entirely forgotten that Obama is as much WHITE as he is black, but I digress.

3. There's a certain racism or "native-ism" that is festering almost subconsciously on two fronts. First, when the economic crisis is discussed, the causes are always in part blamed on poor people who took on loans. Fannie Mae and Freddy Mac are cited, who in large part help minorities and lower-income groups buy homes. One would begin to think that all these poor people are the cause of world-wide financial turmoil.

The other thing is this ACORN blow up which is complete nonsense and is reliant on stupidity to have any effect. As Obama has said, the volunteers are often being lazy and will make up registrations rather than go out and do the work. Mickey Mouse isn't going to walk up and vote so it doesn't matter as far as VOTES go. What does matter is ACORN is an organization that mostly works to get minorities to vote. The Republicans complaining about voter-fraud is perhaps the most blatant example of projection I have seen in at least, well, the past few minutes anyway.

A few other thing has been the general message that "Obama isn't like US," the "community organizer" label is used with a sneering tone, or maybe that's just how Palin's voice always sounds.

I just thank God that William Ayres is white or Obama would be in a world of shit. I'm just trying to say, never underestimate the stupidity of the American people.

The Asterisk in Karl Rove’s Playbook

On the positive side, it seems that the Karl Rove playbook doesn’t work in times of economic unrest. The problem with the Republican strategy is that when people are worried about the economy the Republican lure only continues to work for a particular fraction of the right-wing. It certainly isn’t appealing to the middle and they get turned off of what they are seeing at McCain rallies. If the “silent majority” was angry at seeing hippies daily on their televisions in the late 1960s, I think now they are tired of this hatred they are seeing in McCain’s rallies.